October sales continued on the same track as prior months with sales units continuing to rise (and reduced home prices). I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop as a result of the negative national financial news along with the GM/Chrysler impending changes. To that end, showings for the first week in October fell 10% compared to 2007, but they jumped right back up the next week to the same pace we have seen all year. The sales pace has slowed a bit as have showings in the upper end areas, but the rest of the markets continue to pick up the slack keeping things relatively consistent with the prior months.

So what does all this mean? The trends were heading in the right direction, sales units up and listing inventory is down. With additional impending layoffs, the bottom is likely to be reset to a new level for 2009 and extend our overall recovery time. The silver lining in this is that the new bottom may not be as big a change as it might seem. Here are a few of the key areas of influence in the upcoming year.

Buyers: Additional auto layoffs should not have a major effect on the supply of Buyers so activity should remain at 2008 levels. Few if anyone related to auto has been in the market as a Buyer for the past two years so most of the auto effect as it relates to Buyers has already occurred.

Listing Inventories: Inventories will most likely continue to fall for the first half of 2009 and then remain the same for the balance of the year. Banks are working towards policies to work with homeowners and avoid foreclosures which will reduce or at least spread out the foreclosure rate for late 2009 and 2010. However, additional home inventories from auto related changes will offset some of that, keeping inventories about the same.

Home Values: Home values will continue to decline for 2009. The exact amount is difficult to peg, but it should continue in the 1% per month or more rate. Vacant homes still comprise about 40-60% of the listing inventory. Significant appreciation will not return until those rates fall to 20% or lower.

Economic Stimulus Programs: The current and future stimulus programs will focus on housing; either in making home buying easier or helping lenders repackage mortgages to avoid additional foreclosures. Either way the net effect for 2009 will be positive in reducing or spreading out the foreclosure rate and drawing more buyers into the market. Its full effect will probably not be felt until the second half of 2009.

Auto Bailout: It appears some plan will be implemented, giving Detroit a breather and helping to spread the inevitable continued downsizing over a longer period of time. The positive effect we are looking for is to spread out the number of auto related homes that will go on the market over 3-5 years vs. the 1-2 years it was headed for, thereby helping to maintain values.

Housing Affordability: Our strongest asset, with the economic stimulus making it even stronger. For 2009, low rates and falling prices will continue to create bargains many will not be able to refuse. We may see the strongest affordability index in the past 30 years in 2009!

We can't control the market, but we can control how we react to it. Regardless of how the market shifts in 2009, for Sellers aggressive pricing ahead of the falling market is the key to a successful strategy. For Buyers, a home purchase is a very personal and unique event, trying to time it to the perfect balance of interest rates and pricing is nearly impossible. Start your home search process now and be ready to act quickly, because of aggressive pricing, the best homes are still selling in 30 days.

Daniel Elsea, Real Estate One
President of Brokerage Services 

Here are our stats and the overall market for October:

Total Company Summary - Oct 2008
# of Buyers to Open Houses	2,872
# of Showing Appointments	14,307
# of Homes Sold/Leased	1,364
# of Web Inquires (Unique Visitors)	109,895
# of Mortgage/Title/Insurance Closings	356

	Number of Homes Pending				Available Homes for Sale
Area	Oct 07	Oct 08	% Change		Oct 07	Oct 08	% Change
Oakland County	988	1,484	50.2%		20,356	17,064	-16.2%
Macomb County	729	1,055	44.7%		9,702	8,054	-17.0%
Livingston County	127	186	46.5%		3,631	2,948	-18.8%
Washtenaw County	255	252	-1.2%		4,589	3,591	-21.7%
Wayne ( - Detroit & G.P.)	646	896	38.7%		12,267	11,102	-9.5%
Detroit	853	1,476	73.0%		15,562	12,753	-18.1%
Grosse Pointe(s)	61	63	3.3%		808	929	15.0%
Northwest Michigan**	263	134	-49.0%		10,120	9,957	-1.6%
Total	3,922	5,546	41.4%		77,035	66,398	-13.8%
	Median Sale Price				Ave Chance of Selling (in 120 days)
Area	Oct 07	Oct 08	% Change		Oct 07	Oct 08	% Change
Oakland County	162,000	$   120,000	-25.9%		19%	35%	79.2%
Macomb County	119,000	$    80,000	-32.8%		30%	52%	74.3%
Livingston County	185,950	$   155,000	-16.6%		14%	25%	80.4%
Washtenaw County	194,000	$   149,475	-23.0%		22%	28%	26.3%
Wayne ( - Detroit)	131,000	$    90,000	-31.3%		21%	32%	53.3%
Detroit	16,000	$      8,000	-50.0%		22%	46%	111.1%
Grosse Pointe(s)	219,200	$   147,500	-32.7%		30%	27%	-10.2%
Northwest Michigan**	138,900	$   134,900	-2.9%		10%	5%	-48.2%
Total	$       119,344	$    80,922	-32.2%		20%	33%	64.1%
Data Source: MiRealsource, Realcomp, Ann Arbor Board & BrokerMetrics
Ave Chance reflects the % chance the average home will sell in the next 120 days under the current rate of sales
** Includes Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim, Leelanau and Benzie counties, waterfront properties and vacant land